Indonesia’s transition toward biofuel benefits the green economy but also brings challenges, as expanding palm oil production risks deforestation and higher emissions. This study estimates required oil palm plantation area and its carbon emissions to meet physiological needs of the population and biofuel targets by 2030, by integrating scenario planning based on Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution (ENDC) targets, assessing environmental carrying capacity through an ecological footprint approach, land suitability analysis with Support Vector Machine (SVM), and calculates carbon emissions. Results show that to meet physiological needs and biofuel targets while maintaining ecological balance, oil palm plantations should be capped at 17.67 million hectares, which is lower than the current 18.22 million hectares. Emission reductions are achievable under mitigation scenarios aligned with the ENDC. The findings call for shifting policies from expansion to sustainable intensification and better land governance to support biofuel development without harming the environment.

 

Funded through the 2024 CSIS DfD Lab Call for Proposals